Gold Holds Below US$4,000 as Firm US Jobs Data Keep the Dollar Supported

Gold is struggling to hold its footing below the closely watched US$4,000 an ounce mark, with a resilient US labour market and firm Treasury yields keeping the dollar supported and capping the metal's rebound. According to LiquidityFinder, the near-term gold forecast remains bearish after sellers rejected a retest of the US$4,002 to US$4,087 zone that had previously acted as support for XAU/USD, the standard ticker for spot gold priced in US dollars.

Contents

01

Why a Strong Jobs Picture Weighs on Gold

02

A Rebound That Ran Into Resistance

03

The Levels Traders Are Watching

04

Politics, Payrolls and the Dollar

Why a Strong Jobs Picture Weighs on Gold

For readers new to foreign exchange, the link between jobs data and gold runs through interest rates. Gold pays no interest, so when US government bonds offer higher yields, holding bullion becomes relatively less attractive. Philip Streible, chief market strategist at BlueLineFutures, said rising dollar and Treasury yields are pressuring gold because the metal pays no interest, which reduces its relative appeal when bond yields rise.

The latest US data reinforced that view. JOLTS job-openings figures showed 7.523 million vacancies, up 333,000 month on month and above expectations of 7.10 million, according to a Woofun AI compilation reported in a user-posted article on the NetEase platform. September factory orders rose 1.8%, beating expectations of 1.2%. The same report said the US 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.054 percentage points from the previous day to close at 4.966%, after dipping to about 4.90% intraday and rebounding in the afternoon, while the dollar index edged up 0.033 points to 101.527.

Rate expectations moved with the data. The Woofun AI compilation, citing the CME FedWatch tool, put the market-implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December at about 79%. A separate Mitrade analysis published on 3 November cited a probability of as much as 75%. Both figures point the same way: traders are pricing a higher chance of tighter policy, which is the headwind gold has been fighting.

A Rebound That Ran Into Resistance

Gold had earlier found relief from a sharp slide in crude oil. Mitrade reported that Brent fell 7.6% to close at US$104.77 and West Texas Intermediate dropped 7.4% to US$96.46 after diplomatic signals over the Strait of Hormuz, prompting investors to sell oil contracts and reduce the war-risk premium built up through October. The softer energy picture eased inflation concerns and pulled the 10-year Treasury yield back to 4.90%, which helped gold recover to US$3,948.48 in the morning of 3 November after touching an annual low near US$3,870 overnight.

That bounce did not repair the broader chart. LiquidityFinder notes that on the weekly timeframe gold's market structure has shifted from bullish to bearish, and on the daily chart the metal has broken below its consolidation range and trades beneath its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), a widely followed trend line that weights recent prices more heavily. The weekly chart also shows gold retesting a head-and-shoulders neckline from below after losing the US$4,002 to US$4,087 support zone, with price still under the 50-week EMA.

Dilin Wu, a strategist at Pepperstone, said gold began attracting speculative buying after reaching the annual low of US$3,870 amid forced liquidation in equities. Although price rebounded above US$3,940, Wu said the technical structure has been severely damaged by breaks below support at US$4,000 and US$3,900. Mitrade's analysis added that the 4-hour relative strength index, a momentum gauge, has recovered from deeply oversold readings around 20 to 22 into the 42 to 45 area, but its failure to clear 50 keeps the recovery contained.

The Levels Traders Are Watching

LiquidityFinder frames the next move as conditional. A fresh rally into the US$4,002 to US$4,087 zone that closes back below US$4,002 would favour further selling toward US$3,875. A daily close above US$4,087 would clear the entire resistance zone, and if buyers then defend it on a pullback, gold could recover toward US$4,150, just below daily resistance. Even that move would initially count as a recovery within the broader bearish weekly structure.

Mitrade's shorter-term map is similar. It puts first resistance at US$3,971 to US$3,982, with a break above opening a test of US$4,000, and warns that failure there raises the risk of a bull trap pulling price back to the US$3,885 to US$3,904 base. Holding that base and clearing the first resistance would open the way toward US$4,074 to US$4,083 and US$4,104 to US$4,115, while a break below US$3,885 would risk a slide to US$3,829 to US$3,849 and then US$3,780 to US$3,800.

Futures told a similar story. Yahoo Finance reported that December gold futures opened at US$3,960.50 per troy ounce on 3 November, down 0.2% from the previous close, and slipped to US$3,910.60 by 7:20am Eastern time. The Woofun AI compilation put international gold down US$22.30 at US$3,924.13 an ounce, having touched about US$3,893 before rebounding to roughly US$3,960 without holding the gains, while Comex December futures fell 0.7% to US$3,940.40.

Politics, Payrolls and the Dollar

Two scheduled events sit over the market. US midterm elections and the US employment report expected on 6 November are seen as key to the path of rates and the dollar, and the Woofun AI report said the payrolls figures could influence the Fed's December decision and keep bonds, currencies and precious metals volatile. Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at Forex.com, argued that if Democrats control both chambers of Congress, policy gridlock becomes more likely, which would weaken the dollar and could support gold. Juan Perez, chief trading director at MonexUSA, said divisions within the Fed over policy and potential political conflict mean the dollar could face depreciation pressure over the longer term.

For forex beginners, the practical lesson is that gold and the dollar usually move in opposite directions, so a firm greenback tends to translate into a softer XAU/USD quote. That relationship is a tendency rather than a rule, and it can break down when other forces dominate. Yahoo Finance also carried caution from market participants: Darrell Fletcher, managing director for commodities at Bannockburn Capital Markets, said buying high in the hope of short-term gains is a tough strategy, while Alex Tsepaev, chief strategy officer of B2PRIME Group, said gold should be seen primarily as a stabiliser in a diversified portfolio rather than a driver of outsized returns.

The immediate question is whether gold can reclaim and hold above the psychological US$4,000 level. Until it does, Mitrade's analysis argues, the rally remains a short-term rebound that stays vulnerable to renewed selling from a stronger dollar and to liquidation tied to equity-market swings.

Finally, WikiFX would like to remind everyone that before using any US stock, futures, or forex brokers, remember to check the platform's regulatory information, trading environment, field inspection reports, user reviews, and overall rating on the WikiFX App. This will help you effectively avoid problematic scam platforms and rogue brokers, safeguarding your capital.