The January CPI inflation report is due out Friday morning. Here's what it's expected to show

Investors got some good news this week on the state of the labor market and more may be on the way Friday on inflation.

The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, is expected to show a 2.5% gain from a year ago, according to the Dow Jones consensus forecast for the January release.

If that ends up being accurate, it would bring the widely cited inflation gauge back to its May 2025 level — a month after President Donald Trump enacted his “liberation day” tariffs that many economists thought would send prices spiraling higher.

The headline, or all-items, CPI was at 2.7% in December and has been on a downward trajectory since peaking just above 3% in September 2025. Excluding food and energy, core CPI stood at 2.6% in December. Both gauges are expected to show 0.3% monthly increases in January.