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Commerzbanks Vietnam update highlights rising inflation and a narrowing trade deficit, with strong manufacturing-led imports and resilient exports. The bank notes elevated CPI and external deficits limit scope for aggressive easing, but robust activity persists.
BNYs Geoff Yu highlights that a stronger US Dollar (USD), higher Oil prices and rising global yields are pressuring Asian currencies and assets.
Gold (XAU/USD) price dives over 0.40% on Monday following last Fridays US jobs report, which ignited speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might resume its tightening cycle if inflation reaccelerates late this week, while the labor market remains solid.
Crude Oil trades just under $91.00 after adding 1.6% on Monday. The grind has run roughly $10 from the $81.00 area in nine sessions, and not a barrel has stopped being produced in any of them.
ABN AMROs Chief Economist Germany, Alexander Krüger, notes that German economic output is rising and the bank has raised its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for 2026 to 1.3% and for 2027 to 1.1%.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenbacks value against a basket of six major currencies, extends its decline on Monday as a sharp rally in the Japanese Yen (JPY) outweighs support from elevated geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike expectations.
EUR/USD holds above 1.1600, seven pips above where Monday opened. The pair has had three chances to move over four sessions and has taken none of them. Both central banks are priced to raise rates this month for the same energy shock, and a rate gap that is not moving does not move a currency.
The Pound Sterling rises by over 0.23% amid thin trading conditions, as US markets remained closed for the Labour Day weekend, while the US-Iran conflict escalated, with both countries exchanging strikes around the Strait of Hormuz. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3541.
NZD/USD trades around 0.5880 on Monday at the time of writing, posting a modest 0.06% decline on the day after two consecutive days of gains.
USD/CHF trades with a downside bias on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) stays on the defensive, largely due to broad Japanese Yen (JPY) strength. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.8091 after retreating from an intraday high of 0.8110.
NZD/USD depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 0.5880 during European hours on Monday. The pair depreciates as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces pressure from cautious sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of New Zealands (RBNZ) policy outlook.
Finance ministry data showed that Japan's official foreign reserves stand at $1.207 trillion, down from July's figure of $1.287 trillion.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades 0.13% higher at around 0.7217 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday, the highest level seen in over three months.
Commerzbanks Thu Lan Nguyen notes that the latest US labour market report does not materially alter expectations for a September Fed rate move, leaving August US inflation as the key driver.
The Euro (EUR) trades flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, hovering just above 1.1610 at the European session opening, following a reversal from the 1.1640 area last week.
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens higher against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – kicks off the new week on a positive note amid escalating US-Iran confrontations in the Strait of Hormuz and climbs back above mid-$90.00s during the Asian session.
The USD/CAD pair trades on a flat note near 1.3835 during the early European session on Monday. The pair steadies as stronger-than-expected US jobs data offsets rising crude oil prices. US markets will be closed on Monday for Labour Day.
The EUR/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 181.20 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) as Japanese official projected a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike this month.
Gold (XAU/USD) remains under some selling pressure for the second straight day on Monday, though it shows some resilience below the $4,400 mark during the Asian session.