EUR/USD holds 1.15661 to the pip - reclaim or fade？

Euro / U.S. Dollar Editors' picks Updated 5 hours ago 2 1 Grab this chart Grab this chart 2 2 670 yesterday EUR/USD recorded a low at 1.15661 on Wednesday, the same price as the floor of the range it has traded since 31 August, and has since rebounded to 1.16016 without a close below it. This analysis argues that the range is intact at both ends and that the rebound has run into the same descending structure that has capped every attempt since the August high. Key topics covered Both trigger levels from yesterday's map were respected: The bearish condition required a four-hour close below 1.15661 and the market recorded exactly that price without closing beneath it, the 05:00 UTC candle finishing at 1.15729. The bullish condition required a close above 1.1616 and today's high at 1.16141 fell two pips short of it. Payrolls is the key remaining catalyst: ADP came in at 38,000 on Wednesday against a 47,000 forecast on the desk feed. CME FedWatch had September hike pricing around the mid-60% area in the latest desk snapshot, and that reading should be time-stamped at publication. EUR/USD has generally moved inversely with the recent dollar and US rate repricing since the 21 August high. The rebound has stopped inside a cluster: The 100 EMA at 1.16009, the 50% retracement at 1.16105, the 50 EMA at 1.16117 and the steeper descending boundary at 1.16121 all sit within a dozen pips of each other, and price closed the last candle at 1.16016 among them. The setup Two descending reference boundaries cap the recovery attempts from the 1.17110 high. The primary one runs from that 21 August high through the 28 August high at 1.16577, has no high above it since, and is worth 1.16182 today. The steeper one runs from the 28 August high through today's 05:00 UTC high at 1.16141, and today's second high at 1.16118 sits within half a pip of it. That gives it three contacts, but two of them are the last two candles, so it is a young boundary rather than an established one. The range since 31 August runs 1.15661 to 1.16241, a span of 58 pips, with the 200 EMA at 1.15671 sitting one pip above the floor, inside the first support zone. Fibonacci as drawn on the reference chart, 1.15105 to 1.17105, puts the 50% at 1.16105 inside the first resistance area, the 61.8% at 1.15869 between price and the floor, and the 78.6% at 1.15533 just beneath the second support zone. Above price, the first zone runs 1.1610 to 1.1620 and holds the 50% retracement, the 50 EMA and the steeper boundary, with the primary boundary at 1.16182 inside it as well. The second runs 1.1624 to 1.1634, the range high and the 38.2% retracement at 1.16341. The third runs 1.1645 to 1.1665, the late August bases with the 23.6% at 1.16633 among them. Below price, the first zone runs 1.1566 to 1.1580 and holds the range floor at 1.15661, the 200 EMA one pip above it, and the lows of 30 August and Wednesday. The second runs 1.1553 to 1.1562, holding the 12 August high and the 78.6% retracement. The third runs 1.1525 to 1.1545, the mid-August base. RSI is around 50, recovered from 31.5 on Wednesday, and there is a regular bullish divergence in place: Wednesday's low at 1.15661 undercut the 28 August low at 1.15770 while RSI made a higher low, 31.5 against 25.3. There is no channel, no flag, pennant, triangle, wedge, double bottom or head and shoulders on this timeframe, and no live candlestick pattern in the last ten candles. Scenarios Bullish - the resistance cluster is cleared: A four-hour close above 1.1620 would clear the immediate EMA and Fibonacci cluster and both descending reference boundaries, improving the very short-term structure. The pair would still need to clear the range high at 1.16241, and a close above the 38.2% retracement at 1.16341 would provide stronger breakout confirmation and put 1.1645 to 1.1665 in play. A broader reversal of the decline from 1.17110 would require further confirmation still. Bearish - the range floor gives way: A four-hour close below 1.15661 would confirm a break of the range floor and, because the 200 EMA sits slightly above it at 1.15671, would place price below that average at the same time. The divergence would also be invalidated. The 78.6% retracement at 1.15533 and the 1.1553 to 1.1562 zone would then become the next technical references, and a sustained break beneath that area would expose the 1.1525 to 1.1545 mid-August base. No confirmation: Four-hour closes between 1.15661 and the 50% retracement near 1.16105 keep EUR/USD inside the range without a meaningful resistance reclaim. Closes above the 50% but below the 1.16241 range high are partial technical improvement, and depending on the exact close price may clear one or both descending reference boundaries without yet confirming a range breakout. What this tells us Wednesday's low matched the 1.15661 range floor exactly on the reference feed, which makes the reaction technically notable, and the 200 EMA at 1.15671 sits one pip above the floor, adding confluence to the same support area. The exactness of the touch should not by itself be treated as proof of a durable floor, and feeds differ by a pip on a level like this. What adds to it is the momentum reading underneath. A lower low in price against a higher low in RSI is the classic bullish divergence, and it says the second push down carried less force than the first. It is a condition, not a signal: it strengthens the case for the floor while price holds above it, and it disappears the moment 1.15661 gives way on a close. Does EUR/USD clear the 1.1620 cluster and take on the range high, or does payrolls send it back to test 1.15661 for a second time? Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. 5 hours ago Trade active EUR/USD tested the upside of yesterday's range before payrolls, briefly pushing above 1.16241 and reaching around 1.1633. That cleared the first 1.1620 trigger, but the move stalled just below the 1.16341 level highlighted as the next breakout test. The reversal came with US payrolls. August NFP rose by 162,000 against expectations for 56,000, while unemployment held at 4.1%. The dollar strengthened after the release and EUR/USD dropped back inside the range, trading around 1.1590-1.1600 after the initial reaction. For now, the attempted upside break has failed to hold, but the broader range is still intact. 1.1624-1.1634 remains the area buyers need to reclaim, while 1.15661 is still the key downside level. A break of neither side means the range remains the main structure to watch. ThinkMarkets Broker Follow Following Also on : Fundamental Analysis Technical Indicators Trend Analysis Disclaimer The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use . Fundamental Analysis Technical Indicators Trend Analysis ThinkMarkets Broker Follow Following Also on : Disclaimer The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use .