US Trade Deficit Soars 95% in November, Defying Tariff Policy

The US trade deficit widened dramatically in November, nearly doubling from the previous month and signaling that aggressive tariff policies have yet to curb global trade imbalances.

Data released by the Census Bureau on Thursday showed the trade gap expanding to $56.8 billion, a 94.6% increase from October, when the deficit had hit multi-year lows.

• Trade Gap: $56.8 billion (+94.6% vs October)
• EU Goods Deficit: Expanded by $8.2 billion
• YTD Cumulative Deficit: $839.5 billion (+4% vs 2024)

EU Imbalances Widen

A significant portion of the blowout was driven by trade with the European Union. The goods deficit with the EU expanded by $8.2 billion, accounting for roughly a third of the total monthly increase.

This deterioration comes despite the “reciprocal tariffs” announced by the White House in April 2025 and the subsequent framework agreement in August that set a 15% duty on most European goods. The persistence of the deficit suggests that import demand remains resilient or that retaliatory measures and currency adjustments are offsetting the intended protective effects of the levies.

Macro Impact

For the year through November, the cumulative US trade deficit stands at $839.5 billion, approximately 4% higher than the same period in 2024.

For Forex markets, a widening deficit can be a long-term drag on the US Dollar, as it implies a net outflow of currency to purchase foreign goods. However, in the short term, the currency's direction is more likely to be influenced by the ongoing Fed leadership selection and immediate fiscal risks.