Oil Supply Tightens: Nigeria Projects 14% Drop in March Crude Exports

Global energy markets are digesting fresh supply-side constraints after data indicated that Nigeria's crude oil exports are set to contract sharply in March, potentially putting a floor under Brent and WTI prices.

Production Headwinds Persist

Loadings for four key Nigerian crude grades are scheduled to fall by approximately 14%, dropping to roughly 793,000 barrels per day (bpd). This reduction exacerbates existing concerns regarding global spare capacity and adherence to production targets within the wider OPEC+ framework.

Data Snapshot

• Export Drop: 14% contraction in March crude loadings.
• Target Rate: Approximately 793,000 barrels per day (bpd).
• Commodity Impact: Bullish for WTI and Brent.
• Currency Monitor: Positive support for the CAD.

Forex Impact & Inflation

The reduction in supply from a key member supports the bullish narrative for oil prices. Higher global prices generally support the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Persistently tight oil supplies pose an upside risk to headline CPI data, complicating the pivot timeline for central banks like the Fed and ECB.