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RBA Cornered: Rate Hike Bets Surge as Inflation Misses Expectations
Abstract：Australian inflation data for Q4 significantly exceeded expectations, prompting major banks to revise their forecasts. Markets are now pricing in a 73% probability of the Reserve Bank of Australia hiking rates next week, diverging from the global pivot trend.
SYDNEY — The Australian Dollar (AUD) outperformed major peers today after hot inflation data shattered the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) wait-and-see narrative, forcing the market to price in an imminent resumption of monetary tightening.
CPI Surprise
Data from the ABS revealed that the Trimmed Mean CPI rose 0.9% in the December quarter, exceeding the 0.8% forecast. The annualized rate climbed to 3.4%, moving further away from the RBA's 2-3% target band.
- Headline inflation jumped 1.0% month-on-month in December.
Institutional Pivot
The data triggered a hawkish recalibration regarding the RBA. ANZ, Westpac, CBA, and NAB now expect the cash rate to rise to 3.85% at the February 3 meeting.
- Markets are pricing in a 73% chance of a hike next week, up from 60% pre-release.
Technicals
- AUD/USD successfully defended the 0.6900 support level.
- Price action is eyeing a test of the psychological 0.7100 barrier.
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
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