WTI Breaks $62.50 as US "Two-Week" Warning to Israel Signals Imminent Iran Conflict

Dubai/Washington — Crude oil prices broke decisively out of a multi-week consolidation range on Wednesday, with WTI surging past $62.50 and hitting highs not seen since October. The catalyst is a sharp escalation in war risk premiums following reports of imminent US military operations in the Persian Gulf.

The “Two-Week” Window

Intelligence sources indicate the United States has informed Israeli counterparts that preparations for a potential strike on Iran will be completed within two weeks. While US officials emphasize that a strike is not guaranteed, the explicit timeline has forced energy traders to price in a high-probability supply disruption event.

Simultaneously, US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced the commencement of large-scale air combat exercises in the Middle East, aimed at demonstrating 'rapid deployment' capabilities—a move widely interpreted as a final rehearsal for conflict.

Iran's Response

Tehran has escalated its rhetoric and operational posture. Mohammad Akbarzadeh, a senior IRGC commander, stated Wednesday that Iran has established “real-time intelligent monitoring” of the Strait of Hormuz.

• Market Threat: Iran explicitly claimed control over the passage of all vessels, warning that the security of the strait borders on Tehran's decision-making.

Technicals & Market Impact

• Crude Oil Breakout: WTI clearing $62.50 is technically significant. Risks are skewed upside with $64.00 as the next resistance.
• Safe Havens: Gold and Swiss Franc (CHF) are seeing accelerated inflows due to kinetic conflict prospects.