Gold Tears Through Records, Eyes Psychologically Critical $5,000 Level

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently staging one of its most aggressive rallies in history, trading around $4,967 during the Asian session on Friday. The precious metal has extended its winning streak to five consecutive days, continuing a vertical ascent that market analysts suggest is driven by far more than traditional safe-haven flows.

The Structural Shift: Private Sector 'De-Dollarization'

While central bank buying dominated the bullion narrative in previous years, data from Goldman Sachs suggests a pivotal shift in 2025 and 2026. The current rally is increasingly powered by the private sector—family offices, hedge funds, and pension funds—aggressively reallocating assets.

As noted by analysts, this is a “vote of confidence” against fiat stability. European institutions, including Danish and Swedish pension funds, have reportedly begun trimming US Treasury exposure in favor of hard assets, anticipating that the US fiscal deficit may eventually force a currency debasement.

Geopolitics: The 'Iran Variable'

Adding fuel to the fire is the escalating tension between Washington and Tehran. Following President Trump's threat of 25% tariffs on nations trading with Iran and reports of a US Carrier Strike Group deploying to the Middle East, the geopolitical risk premium has surged.

Unlike previous skirmishes, the involvement of Asian trade partners in the sanctions net implies a potential fracturing of global trade lines, further incentivizing non-dollar settlements.

Technical Outlook

Technically, XAU/USD is in uncharted territory.

• Resistance: The psychological barrier of $5,000 is the immediate target. A breakout here could open the door to $5,230.
• Support: The bullish structure remains intact as long as prices hold above $4,890. A breach below $4,760 would be required to signal a reversal.