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FCA Flags Multiple Unauthorised Platforms Offering Financial Services Without Approval

Gold and Silver Buckle Under BCOM Rebalancing Weight Ahead of Critical NFP

WikiFX

| Two days ago

Abstract：Precious metals face a confluence of bearish pressures as the BCOM index rebalancing triggers mechanical selling, while traders trim risk exposure ahead of Friday's pivotal US Non-Farm Payrolls report.

XAU/USD and XAG/USD are facing a distinct liquidity shock, unrelated to immediate macroeconomic data but driven by structural market mechanics. As global markets pivot toward Friday's US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, precious metals are being hit by a “double whammy” of pre-data profit-taking and the annual Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) rebalancing.

The Liquidity Event: BCOM Rebalancing

A major technical driver currently suppressing prices is the annual BCOM rebalancing, which mandates a “sell winners, buy losers” strategy to reset portfolio weights.

The Mechanism: Following a stellar performance in 2025, gold and silver weights within the index are being structurally reduced.

The Impact: Analysts estimate approximately $7 billion in selling pressure for Gold and over $7 billion for Silver over the coming days. This mechanical flow creates a temporary but potent headwind, forcing prices down regardless of the inflation outlook.

Institutional Positioning:TD Securities has aggressively positioned for a downside correction in Silver, targeting $40/oz with a stop at $92/oz, citing the expiration of the “short squeeze” dynamic and the onset of this rebalancing flow.

Macro Standoff: Waiting for the Jobs Report

Beyond the technical flows, the broader market has entered a defensive crouch ahead of the December NFP data.

The data is expected to clarify the Federal Reserve's rate path for early 2026. While the ADP report showed a modest 41k private job add (weaker than expected), the ISM Services PMI surprised with a jump to 54.4, painting a conflicting picture of the US economy.

Gold Technicals: Spot gold is testing critical support at $4,430, a confluence of the 100-hour SMA and key Fibonacci levels. A breach here exposes the psychological $4,400 handle.

Analyst View: The short-term picture for precious metals is clouded by “flow toxicity.” While the long-term bullish case (central bank buying and geopolitical hedging) remains intact, the immediate window is dominated by index-driven selling and USD resilience.

Disclaimer:

The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.

FCA Flags Multiple Unauthorised Platforms Offering Financial Services Without Approval

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