The U.S Dollar had a difficult year & technical analysis is revealing something unexpected...
What has happened to the U.S. dollar in 2025, and what can we expect in 2026?
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Abstract:On Tuesday, gold prices witnessed the biggest loss for seven years while USD embraced its biggest gain since early June. Driven by this, the markets of stocks, forex, oil and precious metals showed mixed performance.
WikiFX News (12 Aug) - On Tuesday, gold prices witnessed the biggest loss for seven years while USD embraced its biggest gain since early June. Driven by this, the markets of stocks, forex, oil and precious metals showed mixed performance.
This Tuesday, gold sharply dropped over 6% to the low level of $1,901, compared to the high level of $2,035 the night before. The half-month low since July 27 is a record one for seven years and the largest one since Lehman's bankruptcy. Besides, spot palladium fell 6.5% coupled with a slump of 6.7% in spot silver on the same day.
The growing greenback and U.S. Treasury yields may mainly account for the fluctuations in gold prices. The yields of both 10-year and 30-year bonds have been climbing as markets placed a bet on the U.S. issuing a record national debt of $112 billion together with large amounts of corporate bonds within this week.
Furthermore, WTI crude oil generally eased back on the day, seeing its intraday rebound at a time but finally losing 1.39% just shy of $42.0.
Tuesdays USD stayed strong on the whole, with DXY nudged slightly higher of 0.04%. At the same time, the USD/JPY pair volatilized most with a buoyancy of 0.67%, compared to the least volatilized pair of AUD/USD which obtained 0.01%

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What has happened to the U.S. dollar in 2025, and what can we expect in 2026?

The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains steady near 98.00, supported by a mix of technical recovery and external currency weakness. While markets await definitive signals on the Fed's 2026 cutting cycle, technical breakdowns in major peers are driving price action.

The divergence between Federal Reserve guidance and market pricing is widening as traders position for 2026, setting the stage for significant volatility in the US Dollar. While the Fed’s latest dot plot conservatively suggests a single 25-basis-point rate cut in 2026, major financial institutions—including Goldman Sachs and Citi—are pricing in a more aggressive easing cycle of 50 to 75 basis points.

The market capitalization of the six largest US banks surged by approximately $600 billion in 2025, driven by a dual tailwind of financial deregulation and a resurgence in investment banking. This rally has widened the valuation divergence between American lenders and their European counterparts, reinforcing a theme of US financial exceptionalism that continues to influence global capital flows.