Bank Stocks Slide as Anthropic Profits, Oil Prices Rise on Middle East Risks

Market Overview

Global markets traded around four major themes on Monday.

First, U.S. bank stocks led Wall Street lower. Bank of Americas CEO warned that third-quarter trading revenue is likely to remain roughly flat, while investment banking revenue is expected to fall short of expectations. The stock closed down more than 5%, while Goldman Sachs dropped nearly 4%. The S&P 500 fell 0.48% to 7,619.98, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.29%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.56%. Meanwhile, U.S. core CPI for August came in slightly above expectations, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield briefly above 5.0% intraday.

Second, AI leader Anthropic posted a profit for the second consecutive quarter. Second-quarter revenue surged fourteenfold year over year to $11.5 billion. The company has reportedly selected Nasdaq for its listing, with its valuation potentially reaching as high as $2 trillion. Anthropic also signed a $13.7 billion computing capacity agreement with Rum Group.

Third, Middle East supply risks escalated sharply. An oil tanker struck a mine and exploded in the Strait of Hormuz, while Houthi forces launched a large-scale attack on a Saudi air base. WTI crude settled 1.34% higher at $101.39 per barrel, while Brent crude gained 1.02% to $105.68.

This week, the focus in U.S. equities is shifting toward the banking sector and the interest-rate outlook. Bank of America‘s warning on trading and investment banking revenue, combined with slightly hotter-than-expected core CPI and the 10-year Treasury yield approaching 5%, has intensified debate over the earnings outlook for financial stocks and the Federal Reserve’s policy path in the second half of the year.

Forward guidance from other major banks will therefore be closely watched. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessents testimony before the House Financial Services Committee could also influence market sentiment and broader risk appetite.

AI Capital Spending and the Battle for Computing Capacity

Anthropic has now delivered profits for two consecutive quarters while securing a major long-term computing capacity agreement. At the same time, Nvidia and Palantir are reportedly restricting the use of their models, highlighting how cooperation and competition are intensifying simultaneously across the AI value chain.

SoftBank has repaid ahead of schedule the bridge loan used to finance its investment in OpenAI, while Kioxia is considering raising capital in the U.S. Capital continues to flow toward AI computing infrastructure and data storage. In the next phase of the AI investment cycle, companies that can secure long-term access to critical computing resources are likely to hold greater pricing power.

Key Events to Watch

• China: August industrial production, retail sales, January-August fixed-asset investment, and the surveyed urban unemployment rate.
• Anthropic: The company has posted profits for two consecutive quarters and selected Nasdaq for its planned listing, with its potential valuation estimated at up to $2 trillion.
• SoftBank / OpenAI: SoftBank has repaid early a $25.9 billion bridge loan used to finance its investment in OpenAI. OpenAI has confirmed that it will not pursue an IPO in 2026.
• Kioxia / Zhipu AI: Kioxia is considering a U.S. ADR offering to raise at least $10 billion, while Zhipu AI has completed approximately $5 billion in financing.
• United States: September Empire State Manufacturing Index; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee.
• Europe: September ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany and the euro area; U.K. unemployment rate for August.