ETO Markets Global Pulse: Gold Falls 1.1% as Yields Top 5%

Market Review

According to ETO Markets monitoring, on September 14 (Monday), spot gold moved lower and briefly fell to USD 4,253.54 per ounce, the lowest level since August 7. Gold eventually closed 1.1% lower at USD 4,298.63 per ounce. US gold futures also fell 1.3% to USD 4,351.90.

On September 15 (Tuesday) during early Asian trading, spot gold remained under pressure around USD 4,290 per ounce. Escalating Middle East tensions, higher oil prices, persistent inflation pressure, and rising FED rate-hike expectations continued to weigh on gold.

Global Headlines

US 10-Year Yield Breaks 5%

The US 10-year Treasury yield briefly climbed to 5.01%, breaking above 5% for the first time since October 2023. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end forecast from 4.4% to 4.75%, while TD Securities lifted its estimate from 4.25% to 4.75%. Standard Bank expects the yield to reach 5.2% by year-end and 5.3% in the first quarter of 2027.

Iran Rejects Talks Before Conditions

Ali Rezaei, secretary of Irans Supreme National Security Council, said Tehran should not be distracted by conflicting US signals. He said the situation surrounding oil and the Strait of Hormuz has changed and stressed that Iran will not enter negotiations until its conditions are met.

Trump Signals Openness To Talks

Trump said he remains open to negotiations with Iran. He added that the US is helping protect oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and argued that other countries should pay Washington “escort compensation.” Trump also said Iran is eager to reach an agreement and that the US remains open to a deal.

Vance Confirms Direct Houthi Contacts

US Vice President Vance said Washington is communicating directly with the Houthis as the group continues attacks on Saudi Arabia and expands its presence around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The US is also maintaining contact with Saudi Arabia and other countries affected by the conflict.

Zelenskyy Offers Reciprocal Energy Truce

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said Ukraine is prepared to stop attacks on Russian energy facilities if its partners can ensure that Russia stops striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure, critical facilities, and food supply routes. He said reducing attacks on critical infrastructure could become a first step toward peace.

Trump Backs US AI Expansion

Trump posted repeatedly in support of AI and data-center development, while questioning why some technology companies are calling for tighter regulation. He said the US must maintain its leadership in AI. During a call with NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, Trump described AI as the “oil” of the next 20 to 25 years and said its impact could exceed that of the internet.

ETO Markets Analyst View (Spot Gold)

From a daily-chart perspective, spot gold remains in a corrective structure. Prices have fallen below both the 100-day simple moving average and the 20-day Bollinger Band midline, showing that medium-term resistance remains significant. The longer-term bullish structure has not been fully broken, but short-term buying momentum has weakened materially.

On the upside, the 4,330 area, near the 100-day simple moving average, is the first key resistance level. A recovery above this area would shift focus to the Bollinger Band midline near 4,455, followed by the upper band around 4,685.

On the downside, the lower Bollinger Band near 4,230 provides the main near-term support. A confirmed break below this area could open further downside.

RSI stands near 44.35 and has moved into neutral-to-bearish territory, showing a clear loss of bullish momentum. Unless gold regains resistance at 4,330 and 4,455, further short-term downside pressure may remain.

Markets are currently pricing the US 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, rising FED rate-hike expectations, Middle East tensions, and higher energy prices. Gold may remain under pressure and trade with elevated volatility in the near term.

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